Noch eine Solarperle?!
| eröffnet am: | 08.08.07 22:57 von: | donathjose |
| neuester Beitrag: | 14.03.08 21:55 von: | nightfly |
| Anzahl Beiträge: | 47 | |
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| davon Heute: | 3 | |
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mfg nf
Börse Berlin, 12:23Uhr:
Größter Gewinner unter den Top Ten waren LDK Solar ( WKN: A0MSNX ),
die sich um 9,87 Prozent auf 43,40 Euro verteuerten. Das Unternehmen
hatte heute Vormittag mitgeteilt, dass eine unabhängige
Untersuchungskommission, die angeblichen Unregelmäßigkeiten in der
Inventarisierung des Unternehmens nachging, zu dem Schluss kam, dass
die Anschuldigungen eines ehemaligen Mitarbeiters widerlegt werden
konnten.
mfg nf
Börse Berlin 12:21
LDK Solar ( WKN: A0MSNX ) brachen heute nach dem Höhenflug der
vergangenen Wochen ein und verloren 11,41 Prozent auf 43,50 Euro. Der
Wert war gestern nachbörslich in den USA abgestürzt, obwohl das
Unternehmen eine Vervielfachung seiner Erträge gemeldet hatte.
Konkret erwirtschaftete die Gesellschaft im dritten Geschäftsquartal
einen Nettogewinn von 41,6 Millionen Dollar bzw. 37 Cents je Aktie.
Im Vergleichszeitraum des Vorjahres hatte das Unternehmen 4,96
Millionen Dollar bzw 4. Cents je Aktie verdient. Auch die Erlöse
stiegen von 31,5 auf 158,7 Millionen Dollar.
###
Und ein Analhaus:
Rating-Update: Minneapolis (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Analysten von Piper Jaffray stufen die Aktie von LDK Solar (ISIN US50183L1070/ WKN A0MSNX) von "neutral" auf "sell" zurück. Das Kursziel werde bei 34,50 USD gesehen. (20.12.2007/ac/a/u)
###
34,50$ = ca. 24€ nf
ldk1220ny4785down.gif (verkleinert auf 84%)
ich fand es ziemlich arg,was der aktie gestern passiert ist.
ich persönlich,werde einsteigen,den der gewinn je aktie wurde erfüllt und die erlöse ertraffen,um 15 mio. . somit lag das unternehmen selber bei seinen eignen progrosen besser,als die analysten.
und auch die aussichtsprognose ist wirklich nicht schlecht.
und nur schwer vorher zu sagen,wann sie anzieht,das hängt von so einige faktoren.
spekulativ,würde ich heute beginnen.
LDK Solar sieht Erlös von bis $1 Mrd u. Margenzuwachs
Xinyu City (BoerseGo.de) - Der in den USA gelistete chinesische Solarzellenhersteller LDK Solar Co. (News) hat die Prognosen für 2008 konkretisiert und rechnet nun für jene Periode mit einem Erlös von 960 Millionen Dollar bis 1 Milliarde Dollar. Zur Bruttomarge für 2008 und 2009 erfolgt die Inaussichtstellung von 26-31 Prozent sowie 42-50 Prozent.
On Wednesday morning, LDK Solar (LDK) management released 2008 forecasts along with a high level '09 business outlook.press release allows us to do some more intelligent work with regards to LDK's valuation and address some of the analysts concerns regarding manufacturing polysilicon.
The release calls for LDK to book '08 revenues between $960mm and $1bn on 510MW-530MW of wafer shipments. Also included are some tepid figures that has LDK producing between 100mt-350mt of polysilicon. Management has stated the polysilicon they produce will exclusively be used to manufacture wafers, so we can therefore expect about $1.88/watt ($1.88mm/mw) for their wafers in '08. We'll come back to this number in a bit.
As LDK will need to source close to 7,000mt of polysilicon in '08, their gross margins are forecasted to be in the 26%-31% range. Using recently published data, LDK's net margins are approximately 9% less than gross, meaning the net will be in the range of 18%-23% for 2008. Being ultra-conservative and taking the low end of all the numbers ($960mm in rev, 26% gross margin, and 18% net margin) LDK will book net income of $173mm in '08. With 112mm shares currently outstanding, LDK should, in a pretty bad scenario, earn $1.54 per share, which correlates to a 2008 P/E of around 32. While trading at a significant discount to its solar peers, it seems fair with nothing else considered. Keep in mind this is the absolute lowest end of guidance, so a PE of 32 is ultra-conservative and I expect them to perform better than this, especially if poly prices stabilize.
If the 2008 forecast was the only data that LDK provided, I would have been slightly concerned, but it was the business outlook for '09 that really stands out. Let's dig further.
LDK expects to ship between 1,050mw-1,150mw of wafers in '09 (100% increase from '08) and expects to produce between 5,000mt-7,000mt of polysilicon (20x-50x '08 production). While they didn't surround the '09 outlook with any revenue targets, they did add that margins would jump back up between 42%-50% as the inhouse production of polysilicon allows them to reduce their greatest uncertainty regarding margins. So doing some quick math, and again using the lowest numbers from their release, we have:
- Wafer Revenue - $1.88mm/mw X 1,050mw = $1.97bn
- Gross Margin - 42% X $1.97bn = $830mm
- Net Margin - 34% X $1.97bn = $671mm
- Net per share - $671mm/112mm shares outstanding = $6
- 2009 P/E - $6/$49.50 = 8.25
Skeptics may question these numbers, but anyone who has closely followed LDK understands that most of their contracts have fixed pricing through 2009 at a minimum, so there should be a lot of comfort in wafer pricing through 2009. With expected growth like this and a forward P/E just north of 8, is it sensible for analysts to remain so bearish on LDK and their expansion plans? Let’s take a look at this a bit further.
2008 will be a very important year for LDK as the focus moves away from their sales capabilities (they are sold out) and squarely on their ability to manage the critical construction projects and an employee base that has grown from 2 employees in 2005 to over 5,400 as recently reported during Q3 results. The aggressive expansion plan, funded to date without any share dilution, has forced LDK to get into the tricky polysilicon production business. Manufacturing polysilicon is a very complicated process compared to making solar wafers, and management is well aware of this fact. Nick Sarno, LDK's Head of Manufacturing and ex-MEMC guru, has compiled a leading team of engineers and polysilicon experts from around the world to help make the LDK vision a reality. They have also contracted Fluor to build the polysilicon plant and will rely on Fluor's industry leading expertise in building high-tech manufacturing facilities. LDK keeps a construction progress page on their website you can visit here.
CNBC recently aired an interview special with Warren Buffett, and a good portion of the show profiled his acquisition of Iscar Metalworking and a trip he was taking to see the new factory in China. During his visit, Buffett was visibly surprised by the lightning fast completion of Iscar’s state-of-the-art factory and expressed amazement in the speed and quality in the Chinese construction efforts, along with the work ethic of the people. In Buffett's candid way, he explained that a project with deadlines like that could have only been completed in China. While the entire western world deals with long lead times for construction projects due to government issues, labor issues, and cost overruns, the Chinese have consistently proven their ability to exceed expectations during an industrial boom that is providing new jobs and exciting opportunities. LDK, and it's deep partnership with the Jiangxi government, are determined to do whatever it takes to make this project work, and betting against them seems like a dangerous proposition.
With the right management team, the right partners, and strong government support, it seems that LDK is well positioned to deliver on many of their expansion commitments. Even if they don't reach their goals and come close, their stock is currently significantly discounted compared to 2009 plans, especially against industry peers like MEMC. LDK has already delivered on their bold commitments in 2007, look good for 2008, and should get a lot more credit for pulling off their plans for the future.
LDK is still controversial amongst the investment community, but if they are able to successfully manage their projects and meet customer deadlines, the controversy will finally be over with very attractive results for investors.
Disclosure: Author has a long position in LDK
http://seekingalpha.com/article/59015-ldk-solar-constructing-a-bright-future?source=feed
The crime is that of the naked short selling of stocks for the purpose of market manipulation (yes, it is actually a crime).
Case in point: LDK Solar (LDK)
In brief, allegations were recently made against the company by a former accounting controller. In the first ten days of trading upon the release of this claim, approximately 152 million shares changed hands. It should be noted that the company was still in IPO lock-in, and so the only shares on the market available for trade added up to around 17 million shares. Now, perhaps in the chaos, shares were traded through an average of 9 times each in the first 10 days, but since the ticker appeared on the naked short threshold list on October 16th, we do know that at least some of the shares were not being delivered due to naked short selling. As of 12/21/07, LDK remains on the naked short threshold list.
Now, naked shorting of stocks "by market makers engaged in bona fide market making" is not illegal or unethical. However, "selling stock short and failing to deliver shares at the time of settlement with the purpose of driving down the security's price" is, indeed, illegal and unethical (see here).
It should be noted that in the process of naked shorting a stock, dilution of the shorted stock occurs due to the introduction of virtual shares (fails) into the system by the naked short seller. According to the SEC, "the value of a stock is determined by the basic relationship between supply and demand. If many people want a stock (demand is high), then the price will rise. If a few people want a stock (demand is low), then the price will fall." Well, this seems pretty obvious, but it should be reiterated. Public companies are required to follow guidelines when altering the number of shares available for trade (dilution), because to do so alters the "supply" side of the equation. It is in the Investor's critical interest to have access to information regarding the "supply" of a stock that they would like to purchase. However, information on the level of dilution of a stock due to naked short activity is not available to the public. Thus, in the case of the purchase of a stock that is listed on the naked threshold list, the investor has no way of knowing how many shares of a stock are outstanding, and thus has fundamentally no way of making an informed decision on an appropriate value for the stock.
The case of LDK is a convoluted one, and has not yet entirely concluded. However, it is a demonstration of the issues surrounding the naked shorting process, and it should be investigated, both from a law enforcement perspective, and from an ongoing market regulation perspective. As an investor in this company, do I not have reason to expect information on the number of shares of stock available for trade? I believe that I and other investors should very much be able to expect that this information is made public on some basis by the DTCC.
Disclosure: Author holds a long position in LDK
Don Pickard
http://seekingalpha.com/article/...e-naked-shorting-crime?source=feed
1/7/2008 3:25:52 AM LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (LDK) announced that it has signed a pact to acquire 33.5% of Jiangxi Sinoma New Material from Xinyu Chengdong Investment and Construction for consideration of about RMB 17 million.
The company noted that Sinoma's proximity to LDK's wafer factory would significantly reduce the logistical costs typically associated with the acquisition of crucibles from abroad.