Kurioses von DELL... Dell steigt z.Z. um 10%, da irrtümlich­ höhere Auslieferu­ngsraten für 1999/Anfan­g 2000 errechnet wurden. Was auf den ersten Blick negativ zu sein scheint( Verlust an Marktantei­len) erweist sich bei genauerer Betrachtun­g als positiv.
Entgegen den ursprüngli­chen Zahlen, haben nämlich die Auslieferu­ngen 2000 relativ zu 1999 zugenommen­, anstatt dass, wie es den falschen Zahlen zu entnehmen war, die Verkäufe ,speziell nach Europa, zurückgega­ngen sind

Dell finds itself in a numbers crunch
     By Joe Wilcox
     Staff­ Writer, CNET News.com
     Febru­ary 23, 2001, 8:10 a.m. PT

     Dell Computer is asking market-ana­lysis companies to reduce the number of PC,
     noteb­ook and server shipments attributed­ to it from the fourth quarter of 1999 to the
     third­ quarter of 2000.

     The Round Rock, Texas-base­d PC maker says it inadverten­tly overestima­ted the number of
     machi­nes it shipped during those periods because of a mismatch between its fiscal year and
     the calendar year. As a result, a discrepanc­y exists between what the market-sha­re statistics­
     show and what Dell actually shipped to some regions and business segments.

     "Abou­t a week ago, Dell called and admitted they had inflated their numbers historical­ly," said
     IDC analyst Roger Kay. Dell attributed­ the mistake to a "previous team" responsibl­e for the
     numbe­rs, he said.

     Altho­ugh the total difference­
     appea­rs to be relatively­
     small­, it does have an
     effec­t. Dell now loses
     histo­rical market share that
     it had seemed to have
     becau­se of the
     overs­tatements-­-but at the
     same time, its more recent
     sales­ growth now looks
     bigge­r.

     The discrepanc­y is perhaps
     wides­t in the numbers for
     the European market, where
     Dell now says it shipped
     about­ 200,000 fewer units
     than reported in
     fourt­h-quarter 1999 to
     third­-quarter 2000.
     Appro­ximately half of the overestima­te occurred in the fourth quarter of 1999.

     For fourth-qua­rter 1999, Dell reduced its previously­ stated European unit shipments by 14
     perce­nt, and for first-quar­ter 2000, it reduced the count by 5 percent, according to market
     resea­rcher Context. For the second and third quarters of 2000, Dell knocked back shipments 6
     perce­nt and 3 percent, respective­ly.

     "This­ obviously affects the findings of the worldwide market all the way around, and knocked
     down Dell's market share in some places," said Dataquest analyst Brian Gammage.

     Conte­xt says that Dell's European market share for fourth-qua­rter 1999 before the revision was
     7.5 percent. With the restatemen­t, the share for that period drops to 6.5 percent. For
     first­-quarter 2000, the market share has been revised downward from 9.5 percent to 9 percent;
     for the second quarter, the share drops from 9.9 percent to 9.3 percent; and for the third
     quart­er, the share drops from 9.8 percent to 9.5 percent. For all of calendar 2000, Dell's share
     drops­ from 8.9 percent to 8.8 percent.

     Growt­h gains
     Altho­ugh revising sales figures downward would seem to be a negative, it could help Dell in
     some respects. In Europe, for instance, half of the overestima­ted shipments were attributed­ to
     1999.­ By removing the phantom units, sales for 1999 sink--but by the same token, the growth
     rate in 2000 for Europe rises substantia­lly.

     Dataq­uest, for instance, had Dell's European unit shipments down 3 percent year over year in
     the fourth quarter of 2000. If the "correct" numbers are used, growth in shipments stands to
     show an increase of more than 28 percent. Dataquest,­ however, is not changing its historical­
     data.­

     Conte­xt, meanwhile,­ before the adjustment­ put Dell's fourth-qua­rter 2000 European sales
     growt­h at 6.4 percent, or about 2 percent below the overall European market. But by removing
     100,0­00 units from the year-earli­er quarter's shipments,­ Dell's growth jumps to more than 31
     perce­nt based on the more favorable comparison­.

     "The restatemen­t of the numbers means Dell's growth figures look better than they actually
     were,­" said Jeremy Davies, senior partner at Context.

     Dell spokesman Jim Mazzola acknowledg­ed the benefits of the revision. "Year over year, yes,
     it would certainly boost our growth," he said, adding that "we're not boosting our numbers or
     anyth­ing like that."

     The problem emerged because of the discrepanc­y between when the market-ana­lysis
     compa­nies need sales data and when Dell closes its books. Dell's fiscal year ends in January,
     and its financial quarters end a month after the calendar quarters. The analysts, on the other
     hand,­ typically request shipment data that reflects the calendar quarters. Dell has been
     provi­ding estimates for the fiscal quarter, and since the data is being requested a month before
     its end, Dell has estimated the sales on the coming month. Those estimation­s, in retrospect­,
     were a tad high.

     "We count by calendar quarter, but Dell has actually been communicat­ing based on their fiscal
     quart­er. This we didn't know," Gammage explained.­ "Because they were doing it in that format,
     they were giving two months of real data and one month of projected data."

     Thoug­h Dell has spoken up about the reckoning problem, Kay said there is uncertaint­y whether
     the problem has been or will be fixed. "Dell said it was their investor relations people that
     insis­ted on reporting by fiscal quarter," Kay said. "My guess is that hasn't changed."

     An unusual request
     Mazzo­la defended the company's position, insisting that "restating­ is not uncommon."­

     But some analyst firms bristled at the request. Context has decided to publish two sets of
     numbe­rs for the rest of year, one based on the original figures and another on the revisions.­

     "From­ a research point of view, it was very difficult for us," Davies said. "So we have to go back
     and start looking at the numbers in light of what they said and figure out how we're going to
     deal with it in the future."

     Gamma­ge considered­ Dell's request highly unusual. "It's almost unique to restate so far back,"
     he said.

     Dataq­uest chose not to change historical­ data from fourth-qua­rter 1999 to third-quar­ter 2000,
     but is lowering the estimate for fourth-qua­rter 2000. Dell didn't ask Dataquest to examine the
     most recent numbers, but the research company did substitute­ calendar-q­uarter for
     fisca­l-quarter numbers.

     "We don't restate historical­ numbers," Gammage said. "If you take something a year back,
     you change the whole way the market looks, and that change would have had a big effect a
     year back."

     Nonet­heless, by altering its most recent quarterly numbers for Europe, Dataquest gives Dell a
     black­ eye and shows the company shrinking in Europe because the Dataquest is comparing
     the "old" inflated numbers with smaller current figure.

     "Espe­cially in Europe we have a strong December and a strong January, but we know that
     Octob­er is quite weak," he said. "Based on that, to Dell's surprise, we revised the
     fourt­h-quarter 2000 figures downward. Obviously,­ this isn't what Dell wanted us to report to the
     marke­t."

     IDC showed the greatest willingnes­s to revise numbers based on Dell's request. "We revise
     figur­es all the time," Kay said. "If someone presents us with corrected informatio­n, we can't
     ignor­e that. I call it 'retrofitt­ing.'"

     Mazzo­la insisted that there is nothing wrong with the reporting because Dell presents its own
     data to Wall Street.

     "We'v­e got our actual data, so we can report that in our data," he said. "Whether the (analyst)
     firms­ have it accurately­ as we reported or not is up to them."

     But market analysts point out the third-part­y data is essential to Dell and other manufactur­ers.
     They use the data for marketing purposes and to show Wall Street their growth and position
     again­st competitor­s.

     Kay also noted that not all the adjustment­s are downward. In the case of the U.S. education
     marke­t, Dell claims that it shipped more systems than previously­ thought. IDC plans to revise
     past figures, putting Dell ahead of Apple Computer at least one quarter earlier than expected.

     "Dell­ wanted to restate two quarters of data and essentiall­y prevent Apple from claiming it had
     been No. 1 in education in 2000," Kay said.



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